EUR/USD Outlook

  • March 17 25. The currency pair EUR/USD will go long term up with a minor pull backs of this up trend. If Trump puts strong tariffs on Europe may be this will be a temporarily pullback on EUR/USD, but after that it will go longer term up as I called when EUR/USD was - 1.03-1.05. This will depend also what FED and ECB will decide on Interest rates, but the ECB has cut the rates already aggressively and that is priced in. And Trump also wants a weak USD and wants the FED to cut rates. This will also depend on how much the Inflation will go up, because if these strong Tariffs against everyone stays this will be Inflationary and the Inflation will go up and the FED have not to cut rates but to raise them and that will be temporarily pull back on the EUR/USD. But after that the Up Trend of the EUR/USD will resume.

  • If the trend goes like the first Trump term the EUR/USD was almost the same - 1.04 with his inauguration and after his speech in March 2017 - "That the USD is overvalued and he needs a weak USD". The EUR/USD went from 1.04 to 1.22-25 till Jan 2018 and Jan-May 2021. The currency situation is now not exactly the same like 2017-2018, but the history often repeats itself. And of course the EUR/USD can't go from 1.03 to 1.20-22 in a single year, but who knows.

  • The EUR/USD is overbought on a on daily chart and close but not exactly near to overbought on a weekly chart and it is close to a correction, but that doesn't mean that it can't go further up without a correction in a short term and medium term.

  • April 04 25. The EUR/USD is at short term resistance here at 1.11-1.1130 and it can pull back or correct after the big run up, for a while. And the longer term trend for the EUR/USD remains Bullish and Up.


  • April 14 25. The EUR/USD is at short and medium term resistance here at 1.14-1.1450 and it can pull back or correct down after this resistance, for a few days. The next medium term resistance is at 1.17, and the next big longer term resistance is at 1.20, and after that at 1.22. And the longer term trend for the EUR/USD remains Bullish and Up.


  • April 21 25. The EUR/USD clears today the level 1.15. This could be a false beakout. The EUR/USD is now extremely overbought on a daily and weekly chart. And it can pull back or correct down after this medium term resistance, for a few days or more. The next medium term resistance is at 1.17, and the next big resistance is at 1.20, and at 1.22 after that. And the longer term trend for the EUR/USD remains Bullish and Up.


  • July 05 25. The EUR/USD cleared on June 25 the medium term resistance of 1.650. It cleared also the level 1.18. The EUR/USD is now overbought on a daily and weekly chart. And it can pull back or correct down after this medium term resistance of 1.18 for a few days or more. The next medium term resistance is at 1.19, and the next big resistance is at 1.20. And the longer term trend for the EUR/USD remains Bullish and Up.


  • Dec 21 25. The EUR/USD is in trading range from 1.14 to 1.1850 from June 11 25 till now. It can pull back or correct down further from the current level of 1.1707 and from the current high of 1.18 on Dec 16 25. When it clears the resistance of 1.18-1.1850 it will go up next year. The next medium term resistance is at 1.19, and the next big resistance is at 1.20 and then 1.22. The longer term trend for the EUR/USD is still Bullish and Up. Espessiay after in May Trump will replace the current FED chair Powell with his candidate, who will likely cut interest rates more and further./li>

  • Evgeni Vladimirov Popov, CEO · tel. +359899927140 · E-mail: evgeni@egsinvestment.com